Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought – report

A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product, researchers have found

The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found.

A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found, a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1C (1.8F) since pre-industrial times and many climate scientists predict a 3C (5.4F) rise will occur by the end of this century due to the ongoing burning of fossil fuels, a scenario that the new working paper, yet to be peer-reviewed, states will come with an enormous economic cost.

Will Taylor Swift provide a £1bn boost to the UK economy?

Barclays’ analysis may be slightly off the mark, but the megastar is tapping into a new trend in spending

Taylor Swift has long been credited with an outsized influence on music, celebrity culture – even politics. But reviving the UK’s flagging economy may be too much to ask, even of the sequinned megastar.

Research published this week by analysts from Barclays pointed to the extraordinary spending surge that ensues when Swift touches down, and suggested she could bring a £1bn boost to the UK.

Dow Jones Industrial Average hits 40,000 points for first time; UK reality TV stars charged over FX scheme – as it happened

Strong quarterly results and hope of interest rate cuts drive DJIA to new alltime high

• Dow Jones passes 40,000 points for first time amid strong quarterly results

A group of business leaders have warned Rishi Sunak that the government’s migration policies risk weakening the UK university sector, the Financial Times reports, undermining a key reason for companies to invest in the country.

The FT explains:

In a letter to Rishi Sunak, bosses at groups including miners Anglo American and Rio Tinto and industrial conglomerate Siemens, said they were “deeply concerned” by widening funding gaps and declining international student applications that were “a result of government policy”.

They said this risked “undermining the positive impact that international students have on our skills base, future workforce, and international influence”, as well as reducing the funding available for research and industry collaboration.

The chancellor should ditch the NatWest retail share offer. It’s not needed | Nils Pratley

The Treasury has been quietly selling off the government’s stake at ever-higher prices on a rising market. Why mess with that?

The government’s plan to sell shares in NatWest to the general public is so advanced that the odds on the chancellor pulling the plug on a pet project are slim. Investment bankers from Barclays and Goldman Sachs are doing their well-remunerated stuff, and M&C Saatchi is knocking up some adverts. The go-ahead for a rah-rah pre-election retail share offer is expected any week now.

In a rational world, though, Jeremy Hunt would call the whole thing off. He already has a tried-and-tested method for disposing of the state’s NatWest shares and – this is the point – it is working splendidly.

Peter Dutton delivers budget reply speech – video

Peter Dutton has argued for a reduction in migration and a winding back of Labor’s overhaul of industrial relations and environmental protections to make mining approvals faster. The opposition leader said his 'vision' was to 'get the country back on track'

• Peter Dutton promises to slash permanent migration by 25% in short term in populist budget reply

Here’s one way to boost investment in UK plc: make our unions more powerful | Larry Elliott

Restrictions on collective power led to decades of exploitation and stagnant pay for workers. Why not try another way?

Profiteering is nothing new. Stanley Baldwin had a pithy description for the new intake of Conservative MPs at the 1918 general election, noting that they were “a lot of hard-faced men who look as if they had done very well out of the war”. The future Tory prime minister was right. Many companies had found a war economy greatly to their liking, securing lucrative government contracts and making a mint in the process. Profiteering was rampant.

Sharon Graham, the general secretary of the Unite union, says something similar has been happening since the war on Covid began in 2020. A study of the reports and accounts of almost 17,000 firms – big and small – showed that pre-tax profit margins were, on average, 30% higher in 2022 than they were in the years immediately before the pandemic began.

Sharp rise in cost of British lamb in UK due to rising demand and import issues

Cold and wet weather also thought to have led to more lambs dying in early season, as Morrison drops 100% British lamb pledge

The price of British lamb has hit an all-time high as cold weather and disease in the UK and difficulties with imports have combined with a surge in demand.

Wholesale prices have soared by more than 40% year-on-year to more than £8.50 a kg , while the amount of lamb expected to be produced in the UK this year is forecast to shrink by 1.4%, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).

Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.1% reducing chance of another RBA interest rate hike

Jobless rate increases from a revised 3.9% in March but it’s a mixed picture with employers adding 38,500 jobs overall

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Australia’s jobless rate rose more than expected last month as more people looked for work, easing risks of another Reserve Bank rate hike.

The unemployment rate in April was 4.1%, seasonally adjusted, compared with a revised 3.9% for March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. Economists had predicted the jobless rate would edge higher for a third consecutive month to 3.9%.

Rachel Reeves should be brave and stop blaming the economy | Letters

There are alternatives to continued austerity – look at Labour’s achievements in 1945, writes Derrick Joad, while Pete Lavender advises against Thatcherite economics

Perhaps the gaslighting is not restricted to the Conservatives (Rachel Reeves accuses Tories of ‘gaslighting’ public over economy, 7 May). Yes, the economy is in a mess, but there are alternatives to continued austerity and the continued impoverishment of increasing numbers of people. The Labour government in 1945 faced a much more difficult task than that facing governments today. Instead of listening to the siren voices of the City, it prioritised the wellbeing of people over reducing the national debt. The City may have disliked the radical policies of the government, but it could live with that, as it realised that there was a workable plan for economic recovery.

A policy that prioritised people’s wellbeing would be one that redistributed income from the wealthiest to the poorest. Labour faced a far worse housing crisis then than it does today. The government rejected the idea of subsidising private rents, realising it would be a cash bonanza for landlords who could keep increasing rents, knowing the government would pay. Instead, it introduced rent controls and security of tenure, and started a large social housing programme – all of which kept housing costs down to an affordable level. Vienna today offers a contemporary example of benign intervention in the housing market, to the benefit of the Viennese people.

UK firms accused of profiteering as study finds margins rose 30% post-pandemic

Unite union study of 17,000 firms shows sectors from energy to banking, and vets to car dealerships, profited from inflation crisis

Thousands of UK companies have exploited their corporate power to increase profit margins since the pandemic, redistributing wealth from employees to employers and shareholders, according to the biggest study yet of data since 2019.

A trawl through the accounts of 17,000 companies by the trade union Unite found pre-tax profit margins were 30% higher on average in 2022 compared with the average across 2018 and 2019. Post-tax margins were on average 20% higher.